The year 2026 will mark a continuing growing rivalry between foreign powers for Africa’s geo-strategic importance and critical mineral reserves, including cobalt, lithium and platinum.
“The continent is poised to be the world’s fastest-growing region in 2026—but the outlook is shaped by competing outside forces,” noted The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the research and analysis division of The Economist Group.
“As global trade shifts and new tariffs take effect, African economies are working to deepen ties with Europe and Asia while navigating an evolving U.S.-Africa trade relationship. Within the continent, regional integration is gaining ground, digital transformation is accelerating, and competition for critical minerals is intensifying,” reported eiu.com.
If 2025 was defined by significant milestones like South Africa hosting the G20 Summit, then the growing influence of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), including Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, is also something to be examined.
It could be argued that the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) capitulated by allowing its breakaway AES members to retain membership benefits, despite having separated from the regional organization.
According to Amani Africa Media, which is a research and Pan African consulting think tank, at the start of 2025, “established transitional arrangements (with AES) preserving crucial privileges for citizens of these countries, including recognition of ECOWAS-branded documents, trade benefits under ETLS (Ecowas Trade Liberalization Scheme), visa-free movement rights, and support for ECOWAS officials from these nations.”
In its analysis, Amani Africa Media continued, “This balanced approach, which marks a departure from how ECOWAS handled the coup in Niger, aims to maintain diplomatic channels while protecting citizens’ and businesses’ interests. ECOWAS has chosen to keep its ‘doors open’ while setting up structures for future engagements.”
The creation of issue-based alternative state groups like AES signals a continental shift towards fluid issue-based “regional cooperation,” rather than “strictly geographical arrangements.”
The year also put South Africa in the forefront on the global stage. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa hosted and chaired the 2025 G20 (Group of Twenty) Summit. The G20 is a global forum of sovereign countries, the European Union (EU), and the African Union (AU).
Not only did the 2025 gathering shine a very bright light on pressing realities faced on the African continent, but it also may have laid the groundwork for the upcoming 2026 G20 summit, which will be hosted by U.S. President Donald Trump in Miami.
The president boycotted the 2025 summit, although according to the Council on Foreign Relations, Africa’s assertive G20 agenda and main priorities align with the Trump administration’s agenda, particularly regarding debt sustainability and critical minerals.
Regarding debt, during the summit, South Africa discussed new approaches to low-income country debt distress, noted the Council on Foreign Relations in a November 2025 article in its website cfr.org.
“This included moving toward a refinancing approach instead of using current restructuring mechanisms. Options floated included leveraging International Monetary Fund (IMF) special drawing rights (SDRs) or selling IMF gold, while another pitch called for debtor nations to form a borrowers’ club.
Without a U.S. agreement to specific proposals, there is some consistency with Trump’s Treasury agenda. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has criticized slow-motion workouts and institutional ‘mission creep’ at the IMF, distracting from its core mandate, which includes improving sovereign debt resolution mechanisms,” the article continued.
“Both Pretoria and Washington want something fairer and faster: a clearer, time-bound process that brings Chinese and private creditors to the same table and gets debt-distressed countries back on sustainable paths.”
Another critical aspect of 2025 on the continent was the battle for valuable minerals. The U.S., China and Russia are in a scramble for resources and have their eyes set on the Motherland.
In an October 12 article on the conversation.com titled, “China and the U.S. are in a race for critical minerals. African countries need to make the rules,” James Boafo, a lecturer in sustainability and a fellow at the Indo-Pacific Research Center at Murdoch University, raised the question of how Africa, with its abundance of mineral resources, can take advantage of this demand for its critical minerals to drive its own development.
“The continent, with its 30% of the world’s critical mineral deposits, puts it at the center of the global geopolitical contest,” he wrote. Boafo explained that the U.S. and European Union have sought agreements to secure supplies and reduce reliance on China.
There is agreement that African nations can and must do more to harness control of their own valuable resources to their advantage.
“Limited and volatile development finance is holding Africa back, slowing down progress towards achieving development goals,” explained the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) body in a 2024 article: “How Africa can harness critical mineral wealth to revamp economies.”
UNCTAD argued that even with current multiple crises, including limited fiscal space, slow growth and high debt, the time is ripe for African countries to turn the tide by seizing the opportunity presented by the critical minerals boom.
“To do so, African nations must embrace a holistic approach that entails not only extracting and exporting raw minerals but also adding value domestically through processing and manufacturing to gain a larger share of the global market,” the UN article noted.
Controlling the mechanisms for processing enables countries to diversify their export baskets and make them less vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations, explained UNCTAD.
“African countries also need to fully integrate their mining sector into national (and regional) economic activities by promoting linkages with other sectors of their economies,” the article noted.
As the continent grows and develops in 2026 and beyond, time will tell whether African nations will continue working to harness their own valuable resources for the benefit of African people.
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